The consequences of the Cuban embargo escalation driven by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy

Abstract

The world economy is facing an unprecedented crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the real scale of the imminent crisis of neoliberal model, accelerating its development and aggravating its consequences. The situation in the global economy had a negative impact on the Cuban economy, especially since it coincided with tightening of economic embargo by Donald Trump Administration against Cuba launched more than 60 years ago. This article provides a preliminary assessment of the consequences of the crisis bearing in mind that the damage will depend upon duration and intensity of the pandemic around the world. Given the open nature of the Cuban economy, the estimates are based on the projected dynamics of the global economy. In the first part of the article the author, relying on extensive statistics, analyzes international context in which the economic situation in Cuba is developing, as well as the key obstacles to the country’s economic development. Further on, the author examines in detail the course of COVID-19 pandemic development in the country, assessing key peculiarities of the government program to combat the virus. The author also makes a detailed analysis of the government program for economic recovery and development, paying specific attention to the peculiarities of the monetary regime in force in Cuba. In the final part of the article the author provides an analysis of the main priorities of the government at the present stage, namely, increasing foreign exchange earnings, food production and improving the efficiency of capital investments, especially foreign direct investments. The author concludes that the key factor for Cuba development will be the effectiveness of application of the economic policy approved by the government and promptness of the reforms that are required to overcome existing obstacles.